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Methane and the gradual phase-out of fossil fuels could limit warming
Climate Analytics estimates that combining methane cuts with the gradual elimination of fossil fuels could limit warming to around 1.7 degrees by 2050 and halve its rate in the 2030s.
The most ambitious scenario analysed by Climate Analytics would see the peak of warming reach 1.6 degrees at the start of the 2040s. After that, the global average temperature could fall to around 1.2 degrees by 2100.
This scenario involves a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels and deep cuts to short-lived climate pollutants. It also includes changes in land use and the removal of carbon from the atmosphere. The report, published ahead of COP31, scheduled to take place in Antalya (Turkey), estimates that a less demanding combination could see warming peak at around 1.7 degrees by 2050.
Methane could slow warming in the coming years
Targeted cuts to short-lived climate pollutants could slow global warming by about 12% by 2035. If combined with a rapid phase-out of fossil fuels, the rate could be halved during the 2030s.
Methane offers the greatest thermal benefits among the measures examined. Opportunities include emissions linked to fossil fuel production, as well as those from agriculture and waste management.
Anna Kanduth, lead climate policy analyst at Climate Analytics and co-author of the report, warns that reducing methane can slow warming immediately, but it does not replace the need to move away from fossil fuels. "Stopping global warming is still possible, but there are no shortcuts," she said, calling for maximum ambition across all areas.
The peak depends on how quickly measures are taken
The report examines how mitigation policies can change the speed of warming and the timing of peak temperatures. Bill Hare, CEO of Climate Analytics, noted that every year of rising temperatures increases the risks we face.
Hare argues that there are tools to reach the peak before 2050 and then begin a downward trajectory. Whether this is possible depends on governments acting quickly enough.
The researchers conclude that no single measure would be enough to bring temperatures back below 1.5 degrees this century. To keep the option of returning well below that threshold compared to pre-industrial levels, the report suggests acting simultaneously on fossil fuels, methane, and other warming factors.